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Back on December 14, I argued that various fundamental, technical and macro developments indicated that the stock market was set for a fall. Call it luck rather than skill, but the S&P 500 index slid roughly 200 points over the following two months, hitting a…
Since hitting a low on January 20, the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP), a proxy for commodity markets as a whole, has risen by 10.6%. The rally has largely been powered by rising prices for oil and…
Based on recent reports, many investors believe the turbulence that impacted various markets earlier this year has come and gone. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that sentiment is ripe–sufficiently complacent–for a broad range of negative fundamental and macroeconomic forces–discussed here,…
Last week’s column, “Is the ‘Crowd’ too Bearish?” discussed whether excessive pessimism on Wall Street had set the stage for corrective countertrend moves in various markets. As of now, the question remains open. After a choppy week, equities and Treasury…
In light of recent market turbulence, one question investors might naturally be thinking about is how concerned should they be? Before answering, it is worth considering two things that old Wall Street hands try to keep in mind. The first is the fact that…
Gold has gained more than 15% to just over $1,200 an ounce since hitting multi-year lows in December. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has fared even better, rallying roughly 40% over the span. The question now, of course,…
A number of fixed-income markets have been on a tear in recent weeks. Treasurys, for example, have rallied sharply, pushing yields lower across the board. So, too, have some municipal and higher-rated corporate bonds. Does that mean what I argued…
Precious metals are generally seen as a store of value, a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during times of trouble. As such, they are an important defense against threats that are known or seem imminent. However, gold, silver and platinum can also…
The real estate sector’s solid performance in recent years has convinced many investors that it is an attractive alternative to traditional investments. For some, it seems, property is a safer haven than gold and other precious metals. However, there are reasons to believe this might not be the case going…
It’s tough being a contrarian. Prices may initially move in a direction that is opposite to what is expected. People will offer plenty of reasons why non-mainstream views are wrong, or at the very least, early. It can be difficult…
So far, 2016 is proving to be painful for those who were betting that some of last year’s popular trends would continue. A group that outpaced the broader equity market in 2015, the “FANG”s–Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet (Google)–has begun…
Two recent articles sum up how challenging the past 12 months have been for many investors. In “The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere,” Bloomberg cites data from Bianco Research that shows 2015 was “the worst year for asset allocation funds…
It’s been said that the responses to a crisis sow the seeds of the next upheaval. Indeed, history suggests that the so-called fixes often fall short of expectations. First, they fail to take account of the fact that the causes of…
One has to be careful about reading too much into short-term swings in asset prices. This is especially true in December, when markets become increasingly illiquid and occasionally volatile as companies, banks and investors close out their books and wind down market-related activities for the…
In the old, pre-crisis days, it was not odd to think that bad news for bonds was good news for stocks. It made sense from a fundamental perspective. Fixed-income markets tend to do poorly when economic activity is strong or inflation…
Following last week’s better-than-expected U.S. November nonfarm payroll data and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen–which essentially confirmed that short-term interest rates are headed higher–all eyes are on the December 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Expectations are that the Fed will…
In theory, the fact that copper and other commodity prices are hovering near multi-year lows (as I noted here), while the Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of global shipping rates, has just hit its lowest level in three decades (suggesting…
One often-repeated claim, as I noted in “A Boiling Point… For Gold” and “Is the Conventional Wisdom Wrong About Gold?” is that gold (and other precious metals) likely won’t rally because inflation remains subdued. However, recent data suggests that the…
According to the bears, there are two reasons to be negative on gold: rising interest rates (an issue I discussed in “Is the Conventional Wisdom Wrong About Gold?”), which will make the price of the metal more expensive for non-dollar…
In the wake of last Friday’s U.S. employment report, a growing number of analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before year-end. The conventional wisdom is that such a move will only add to a bearish outlook…
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